:Product: 0619RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2024 Jun 19 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 171 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Jun 2024

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z to
19/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
19/0638Z from Region 3711 (S11W81). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(20 Jun, 21 Jun, 22 Jun).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 575 km/s at 19/1655Z. Total IMF reached 5
nT at 19/1015Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
19/1906Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 409 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (20 Jun) and quiet to unsettled levels
on days two and three (21 Jun, 22 Jun).

III.  Event probabilities 20 Jun-22 Jun
Class M    60/60/60
Class X    15/15/15
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           19 Jun 196
Predicted   20 Jun-22 Jun 195/195/200
90 Day Mean        19 Jun 176

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Jun  011/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Jun  008/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Jun-22 Jun  006/005-007/010-008/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Jun-22 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/20/25
Minor Storm           01/05/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/25/30
Major-severe storm    20/30/35