:Product: 0621RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2024 Jun 21 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 173 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Jun 2024

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20/2100Z to
21/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M5 event observed at
20/2316Z from Region 3719 (S13E55). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(22 Jun, 23 Jun, 24 Jun).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 455 km/s at 21/0058Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
21/0227Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at
21/1805Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 629 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (22 Jun), quiet to unsettled
levels on day two (23 Jun) and quiet levels on day three (24 Jun).
Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and
three (22 Jun, 23 Jun, 24 Jun).

III.  Event probabilities 22 Jun-24 Jun
Class M    60/60/60
Class X    15/15/15
Proton     15/15/15
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           21 Jun 197
Predicted   22 Jun-24 Jun 200/190/190
90 Day Mean        21 Jun 176

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Jun  008/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Jun  008/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Jun-24 Jun  011/012-008/010-005/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Jun-24 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/20/10
Minor Storm           10/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           30/25/20
Major-severe storm    40/30/20