:Product: 0622RSGA.txt :Issued: 2024 Jun 22 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 174 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Jun 2024 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event observed at 22/0855Z from Region 3716 (N10W72). There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (23 Jun, 24 Jun, 25 Jun). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 377 km/s at 21/2144Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 22/1531Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -2 nT at 21/2107Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 772 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (23 Jun) and quiet levels on days two and three (24 Jun, 25 Jun). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (23 Jun, 24 Jun, 25 Jun). III. Event probabilities 23 Jun-25 Jun Class M 60/60/60 Class X 15/15/15 Proton 15/15/15 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 22 Jun 196 Predicted 23 Jun-25 Jun 190/185/190 90 Day Mean 22 Jun 176 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 21 Jun 004/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Jun 009/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Jun-25 Jun 008/010-005/005-006/005 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Jun-25 Jun A. Middle Latitudes Active 20/10/10 Minor Storm 05/01/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 25/20/20 Major-severe storm 30/20/20