:Product: 0623RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2024 Jun 23 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 175 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Jun 2024

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22/2100Z to
23/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M9 event observed at
23/1301Z from Region 3723 (S18E67). There are currently 11 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(24 Jun, 25 Jun, 26 Jun).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 377 km/s at 23/0544Z. Total IMF reached 12
nT at 23/0730Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -10 nT at
23/0731Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 408 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (24 Jun) and quiet levels
on days two and three (25 Jun, 26 Jun). Protons greater than 10 Mev have
a slight chance of crossing threshold on day one (24 Jun).

III.  Event probabilities 24 Jun-26 Jun
Class M    60/60/60
Class X    15/15/15
Proton     15/05/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           23 Jun 196
Predicted   24 Jun-26 Jun 190/190/190
90 Day Mean        23 Jun 176

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Jun  006/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Jun  010/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Jun-26 Jun  007/008-005/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Jun-26 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/10/10
Minor Storm           05/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/20/20
Major-severe storm    25/20/20