:Product: 0624RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2024 Jun 24 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 176 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Jun 2024

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z to
24/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
24/0452Z from Region 3712 (S25W95). There are currently 9 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(25 Jun, 26 Jun, 27 Jun).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 364 km/s at 23/2117Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at
24/1943Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
23/2243Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 121 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (25 Jun, 26 Jun, 27
Jun). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of crossing
threshold on day one (25 Jun).

III.  Event probabilities 25 Jun-27 Jun
Class M    60/60/60
Class X    15/15/15
Proton     10/05/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           24 Jun 199
Predicted   25 Jun-27 Jun 200/200/200
90 Day Mean        24 Jun 177

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Jun  012/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Jun  007/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Jun-27 Jun  005/005-006/005-005/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Jun-27 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    20/20/20