:Product: 0625RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2024 Jun 25 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 177 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Jun 2024

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24/2100Z to
25/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
25/1245Z from Region 3723 (S19E44). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate on
days one, two, and three (26 Jun, 27 Jun, 28 Jun).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 357 km/s at 25/1434Z. Total IMF reached 10
nT at 25/2029Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at
25/1413Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 121 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (26 Jun, 27 Jun, 28
Jun).

III.  Event probabilities 26 Jun-28 Jun
Class M    55/55/55
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           25 Jun 194
Predicted   26 Jun-28 Jun 200/200/200
90 Day Mean        25 Jun 177

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Jun  007/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Jun  009/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Jun-28 Jun  006/005-005/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Jun-28 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    20/20/20