:Product: 0626RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2024 Jun 26 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 178 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Jun 2024

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25/2100Z to
26/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C6 event observed at
26/1530Z from Region 3723 (S19E30). There are currently 9 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate on
days one, two, and three (27 Jun, 28 Jun, 29 Jun).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 383 km/s at 26/1553Z. Total IMF reached 12
nT at 26/0329Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at
26/0618Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (27 Jun) and quiet to minor storm
levels on days two and three (28 Jun, 29 Jun).

III.  Event probabilities 27 Jun-29 Jun
Class M    55/55/55
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           26 Jun 181
Predicted   27 Jun-29 Jun 180/180/180
90 Day Mean        26 Jun 177

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Jun  009/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Jun  008/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Jun-29 Jun  005/005-010/012-014/015

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Jun-29 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/35/45
Minor Storm           01/20/20
Major-severe storm    01/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/10/10
Minor Storm           20/25/25
Major-severe storm    20/50/60