:Product: 0627RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2024 Jun 27 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 179 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Jun 2024

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26/2100Z to
27/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at
27/0428Z from Region 3729 (S03E52). There are currently 10 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate on
days one, two, and three (28 Jun, 29 Jun, 30 Jun).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 358 km/s at 27/0832Z. Total IMF reached 13
nT at 27/1134Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at
27/2025Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 135 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on days one and two (28 Jun, 29
Jun) and quiet levels on day three (30 Jun).

III.  Event probabilities 28 Jun-30 Jun
Class M    55/55/55
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           27 Jun 183
Predicted   28 Jun-30 Jun 182/182/182
90 Day Mean        27 Jun 177

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Jun  008/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Jun  007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Jun-30 Jun  010/012-014/015-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Jun-30 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/45/10
Minor Storm           20/20/01
Major-severe storm    05/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/10/15
Minor Storm           25/25/20
Major-severe storm    50/60/20