:Product: 0628RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2024 Jun 28 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 180 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Jun 2024

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27/2100Z to
28/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C6 event observed at
27/2347Z from Region 3730 (S18E09). There are currently 12 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (29 Jun, 30 Jun,
01 Jul).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to severe storm levels for the past 24
hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 500 km/s at 28/1516Z. Total
IMF reached 30 nT at 28/1045Z. The maximum southward component of Bz
reached -24 nT at 28/1035Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 104 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (29 Jun), quiet to
unsettled levels on day two (30 Jun) and quiet to active levels on day
three (01 Jul).

III.  Event probabilities 29 Jun-01 Jul
Class M    50/50/50
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           28 Jun 181
Predicted   29 Jun-01 Jul 180/185/190
90 Day Mean        28 Jun 178

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Jun  011/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Jun  035/061
Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Jun-01 Jul  016/020-008/008-011/015

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Jun-01 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/15/30
Minor Storm           30/05/15
Major-severe storm    10/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                05/15/15
Minor Storm           20/25/30
Major-severe storm    65/25/45