:Product: 0629RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2024 Jun 29 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 181 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Jun 2024

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z to
29/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at
29/1538Z from Region 3734 (N08E70). There are currently 15 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (30 Jun, 01 Jul,
02 Jul).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 512 km/s at 29/1338Z. Total IMF reached 11
nT at 28/2102Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at
29/1946Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (30 Jun) and quiet to
active levels on days two and three (01 Jul, 02 Jul).

III.  Event probabilities 30 Jun-02 Jul
Class M    30/30/30
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           29 Jun 186
Predicted   30 Jun-02 Jul 190/195/200
90 Day Mean        29 Jun 178

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Jun  032/066
Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Jun  014/016
Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Jun-02 Jul  008/008-011/015-010/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Jun-02 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/30/30
Minor Storm           05/15/15
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/30/30
Major-severe storm    25/45/45