:Product: 0630RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2024 Jun 30 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 182 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Jun 2024

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z to
30/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at
30/0618Z from Region 3734 (N08E59). There are currently 15 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (01 Jul, 02 Jul,
03 Jul).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 586 km/s at 30/2015Z. Total IMF reached 9
nT at 29/2102Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at
30/0046Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 118 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one, two, and three (01 Jul, 02
Jul, 03 Jul).

III.  Event probabilities 01 Jul-03 Jul
Class M    30/30/30
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           30 Jun 174
Predicted   01 Jul-03 Jul 180/180/175
90 Day Mean        30 Jun 179

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Jun  011/014
Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Jun  011/013
Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Jul-03 Jul  011/015-010/012-011/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Jul-03 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/30/30
Minor Storm           15/15/15
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           30/30/30
Major-severe storm    45/45/45