:Product: 0701RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2024 Jul 01 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 183 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Jul 2024

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30/2100Z to
01/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event observed at
01/1102Z from Region 3730 (S17W47). There are currently 13 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (02 Jul, 03 Jul,
04 Jul).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 01/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 618 km/s at 30/2246Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
30/2350Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
30/2152Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 290 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and three (02 Jul, 04 Jul)
and quiet to minor storm levels on day two (03 Jul).

III.  Event probabilities 02 Jul-04 Jul
Class M    35/35/35
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           01 Jul 171
Predicted   02 Jul-04 Jul 180/175/170
90 Day Mean        01 Jul 179

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Jun  010/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Jul  008/011
Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Jul-04 Jul  010/012-014/018-011/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Jul-04 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/35/20
Minor Storm           15/30/05
Major-severe storm    01/10/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/10/15
Minor Storm           30/20/25
Major-severe storm    45/65/30