:Product: 0704RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2024 Jul 04 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 186 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Jul 2024

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z to
04/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
04/2005Z from Region 3730 (S18W85). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (05 Jul, 06 Jul,
07 Jul).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 394 km/s at 03/2221Z. Total IMF reached 10
nT at 04/1911Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at
04/1810Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 792 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (05 Jul) and quiet levels
on days two and three (06 Jul, 07 Jul).

III.  Event probabilities 05 Jul-07 Jul
Class M    35/35/35
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           04 Jul 173
Predicted   05 Jul-07 Jul 175/172/168
90 Day Mean        04 Jul 181

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Jul  006/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Jul  007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Jul-07 Jul  008/008-005/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Jul-07 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/10/10
Minor Storm           05/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/20/20
Major-severe storm    25/20/20