:Product: 0705RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2024 Jul 05 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 187 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Jul 2024

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z to
05/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C9 event observed at
05/1903Z. There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (06 Jul, 07 Jul,
08 Jul).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 389 km/s at 05/1007Z. Total IMF reached 11
nT at 05/0540Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at
05/1103Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 171 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (06 Jul, 07 Jul) and quiet to
active levels on day three (08 Jul).

III.  Event probabilities 06 Jul-08 Jul
Class M    35/35/35
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           05 Jul 166
Predicted   06 Jul-08 Jul 165/165/160
90 Day Mean        05 Jul 182

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Jul  010/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Jul  008/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Jul-08 Jul  005/005-006/005-010/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Jul-08 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/30
Minor Storm           01/01/15
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/30
Major-severe storm    20/20/45