:Product: 0706RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2024 Jul 06 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 188 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Jul 2024

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z to
06/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C7 event observed at
05/2356Z from Region 3737 (S13W88). There are currently 9 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (07 Jul, 08 Jul,
09 Jul).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 379 km/s at 05/2306Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at
06/0259Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
06/0013Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 154 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (07 Jul), quiet to active levels on day
two (08 Jul) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (09 Jul).

III.  Event probabilities 07 Jul-09 Jul
Class M    40/40/40
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           06 Jul 166
Predicted   07 Jul-09 Jul 170/165/165
90 Day Mean        06 Jul 182

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Jul  010/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Jul  004/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Jul-09 Jul  006/005-010/012-008/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Jul-09 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/30/20
Minor Storm           01/15/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/30/25
Major-severe storm    20/45/30