:Product: 0707RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2024 Jul 07 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 189 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Jul 2024

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z to
07/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
06/2315Z from Region 3738 (S09E58). There are currently 9 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (08 Jul, 09 Jul,
10 Jul).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 412 km/s at 07/1409Z. Total IMF reached 8
nT at 07/1651Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
07/1943Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 148 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (08 Jul), quiet to unsettled
levels on day two (09 Jul) and quiet levels on day three (10 Jul).

III.  Event probabilities 08 Jul-10 Jul
Class M    40/40/40
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           07 Jul 171
Predicted   08 Jul-10 Jul 165/165/165
90 Day Mean        07 Jul 182

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Jul  004/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Jul  006/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Jul-10 Jul  010/012-008/010-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Jul-10 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/20/10
Minor Storm           15/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           30/25/20
Major-severe storm    45/30/20