:Product: 0708RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2024 Jul 08 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 190 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Jul 2024

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z to
08/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event observed at
07/2230Z. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (09 Jul, 10 Jul,
11 Jul).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 439 km/s at 08/1455Z. Total IMF reached 10
nT at 08/1044Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at
08/0936Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 131 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (09 Jul), quiet levels on
day two (10 Jul) and quiet to active levels on day three (11 Jul).

III.  Event probabilities 09 Jul-11 Jul
Class M    40/40/40
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           08 Jul 169
Predicted   09 Jul-11 Jul 170/170/170
90 Day Mean        08 Jul 183

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Jul  007/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Jul  009/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Jul-11 Jul  009/010-006/005-009/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Jul-11 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/10/30
Minor Storm           05/01/15
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/20/30
Major-severe storm    30/20/45