:Product: 0710RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2024 Jul 10 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 192 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Jul 2024

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z to
10/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
10/0559Z from Region 3738 (S10E01). There are currently 9 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(11 Jul, 12 Jul, 13 Jul).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 443 km/s at 10/0832Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at
10/0625Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
09/2117Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 116 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (11 Jul), quiet to unsettled
levels on day two (12 Jul) and quiet to minor storm levels on day three
(13 Jul). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days
one, two, and three (11 Jul, 12 Jul, 13 Jul).

III.  Event probabilities 11 Jul-13 Jul
Class M    60/60/60
Class X    15/15/15
Proton     15/15/15
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           10 Jul 214
Predicted   11 Jul-13 Jul 215/215/215
90 Day Mean        10 Jul 184

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Jul  008/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Jul  007/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Jul-13 Jul  009/012-008/008-010/015

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Jul-13 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/20/40
Minor Storm           15/05/30
Major-severe storm    01/01/10
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/05
Minor Storm           30/25/25
Major-severe storm    45/30/65