:Product: 0711RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2024 Jul 11 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 193 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Jul 2024

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z to
11/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
11/0417Z from Region 3745 (S17E44). There are currently 9 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(12 Jul, 13 Jul, 14 Jul).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 397 km/s at 11/1737Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
11/1809Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
10/2213Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 138 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (12 Jul) and quiet to
minor storm levels on days two and three (13 Jul, 14 Jul). Protons have
a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (12
Jul, 13 Jul, 14 Jul).

III.  Event probabilities 12 Jul-14 Jul
Class M    60/60/60
Class X    15/15/15
Proton     15/15/15
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           11 Jul 205
Predicted   12 Jul-14 Jul 205/205/210
90 Day Mean        11 Jul 185

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Jul  008/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Jul  009/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Jul-14 Jul  008/008-010/015-013/018

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Jul-14 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/40/40
Minor Storm           05/30/30
Major-severe storm    01/10/15
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/05/05
Minor Storm           25/25/25
Major-severe storm    30/65/70