:Product: 0712RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2024 Jul 12 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 194 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Jul 2024

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z to
12/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C6 event observed at
12/1328Z from Region 3743 (S09E24). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(13 Jul, 14 Jul, 15 Jul).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 391 km/s at 12/1529Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at
12/1537Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
11/2224Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 160 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on days one and two (13 Jul, 14
Jul) and quiet to active levels on day three (15 Jul). Protons have a
slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (13 Jul,
14 Jul, 15 Jul).

III.  Event probabilities 13 Jul-15 Jul
Class M    60/60/60
Class X    15/15/15
Proton     15/15/15
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           12 Jul 210
Predicted   13 Jul-15 Jul 215/220/220
90 Day Mean        12 Jul 185

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Jul  007/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Jul  006/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Jul-15 Jul  010/015-013/018-010/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Jul-15 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/40/30
Minor Storm           30/30/15
Major-severe storm    10/15/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                05/05/15
Minor Storm           25/25/30
Major-severe storm    65/70/45