:Product: 0713RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2024 Jul 13 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 195 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Jul 2024

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z to
13/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M5 event observed at
13/1242Z from Region 3738 (S09W40). There are currently 11 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(14 Jul, 15 Jul, 16 Jul).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 376 km/s at 12/2150Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at
13/1618Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
13/0530Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 137 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (14 Jul), quiet to
active levels on day two (15 Jul) and quiet levels on day three (16
Jul). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one,
two, and three (14 Jul, 15 Jul, 16 Jul).

III.  Event probabilities 14 Jul-16 Jul
Class M    60/60/60
Class X    15/15/15
Proton     15/15/15
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           13 Jul 238
Predicted   14 Jul-16 Jul 235/235/235
90 Day Mean        13 Jul 186

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Jul  007/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Jul  007/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Jul-16 Jul  012/015-010/012-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Jul-16 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/30/20
Minor Storm           30/15/05
Major-severe storm    15/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                05/15/15
Minor Storm           25/30/25
Major-severe storm    70/45/30