:Product: 0715RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2024 Jul 15 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 197 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Jul 2024

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z to
15/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event observed at
15/0937Z from Region 3738 (S09W68). There are currently 12 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(16 Jul, 17 Jul, 18 Jul).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 336 km/s at 15/1646Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at
15/2058Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at
15/1643Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 128 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (16 Jul, 17 Jul) and quiet to
active levels on day three (18 Jul). Protons have a slight chance of
crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (16 Jul, 17 Jul, 18 Jul).

III.  Event probabilities 16 Jul-18 Jul
Class M    65/65/65
Class X    15/15/15
Proton     15/15/15
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           15 Jul 233
Predicted   16 Jul-18 Jul 235/235/230
90 Day Mean        15 Jul 187

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Jul  009/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Jul  006/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Jul-18 Jul  005/005-006/005-007/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Jul-18 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/30
Minor Storm           01/01/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/30
Major-severe storm    15/15/40