:Product: 0716RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2024 Jul 16 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 198 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Jul 2024

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z to
16/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a X1 event observed at
16/1326Z from Region 3738 (N09W83). There are currently 15 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on day one (17 Jul) and likely to be
moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days two and three
(18 Jul, 19 Jul).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 423 km/s at 16/2013Z. Total IMF reached 17
nT at 16/0526Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at
15/2341Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 216 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (17 Jul, 19
Jul) and quiet to active levels on day two (18 Jul). Protons have a
chance of crossing threshold on day one (17 Jul) and have a slight
chance of crossing threshold on days two and three (18 Jul, 19 Jul).

III.  Event probabilities 17 Jul-19 Jul
Class M    70/55/55
Class X    25/10/10
Proton     25/10/10
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           16 Jul 242
Predicted   17 Jul-19 Jul 240/238/238
90 Day Mean        16 Jul 187

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Jul  008/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Jul  008/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Jul-19 Jul  009/008-007/010-008/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Jul-19 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/30/20
Minor Storm           05/10/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/30/25
Major-severe storm    25/40/25