:Product: 0718RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2024 Jul 18 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 200 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Jul 2024

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17/2100Z to
18/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event observed at
18/1014Z from Region 3751 (S08E14). There are currently 18 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(19 Jul, 20 Jul, 21 Jul).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 396 km/s at 17/2145Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
18/1603Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at
18/1623Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (19 Jul), quiet to active
levels on day two (20 Jul) and quiet to minor storm levels on day three
(21 Jul). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one
and two (19 Jul, 20 Jul) and have a slight chance of crossing threshold
on day three (21 Jul).

III.  Event probabilities 19 Jul-21 Jul
Class M    60/60/55
Class X    15/15/10
Proton     15/15/10
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           18 Jul 209
Predicted   19 Jul-21 Jul 210/210/210
90 Day Mean        18 Jul 187

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Jul  007/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Jul  007/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Jul-21 Jul  008/008-013/016-018/020

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Jul-21 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/30/35
Minor Storm           05/10/30
Major-severe storm    01/01/10
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/10
Minor Storm           25/30/20
Major-severe storm    25/40/65