:Product: 0719RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2024 Jul 19 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 201 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Jul 2024

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z to
19/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M3 event observed at
19/0823Z from Region 3753 (N12W76). There are currently 18 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(20 Jul, 21 Jul, 22 Jul).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 363 km/s at 19/2045Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at
19/1617Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
19/1746Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 110 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (20 Jul), quiet to minor
storm levels on day two (21 Jul) and quiet to unsettled levels on day
three (22 Jul). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on
days one and two (20 Jul, 21 Jul) and have a slight chance of crossing
threshold on day three (22 Jul).

III.  Event probabilities 20 Jul-22 Jul
Class M    55/55/55
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     15/15/10
PCAF       yellow

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           19 Jul 202
Predicted   20 Jul-22 Jul 200/190/185
90 Day Mean        19 Jul 187

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Jul  004/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Jul  005/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Jul-22 Jul  013/016-018/020-008/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Jul-22 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/35/20
Minor Storm           10/30/05
Major-severe storm    01/10/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/10/15
Minor Storm           30/20/25
Major-severe storm    40/65/25