:Product: 0720RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2024 Jul 20 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 202 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Jul 2024

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19/2100Z to
20/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
20/0720Z from Region 3751 (S09W15). There are currently 13 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(21 Jul, 22 Jul, 23 Jul).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 403 km/s at 20/0509Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at
20/0905Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
20/0518Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 119 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (21 Jul), quiet to
unsettled levels on day two (22 Jul) and quiet levels on day three (23
Jul). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one,
two, and three (21 Jul, 22 Jul, 23 Jul).

III.  Event probabilities 21 Jul-23 Jul
Class M    55/55/55
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     10/10/10
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           20 Jul 207
Predicted   21 Jul-23 Jul 195/195/190
90 Day Mean        20 Jul 187

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Jul  005/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Jul  008/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Jul-23 Jul  018/020-008/008-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Jul-23 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/20/10
Minor Storm           30/05/01
Major-severe storm    10/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/15/15
Minor Storm           20/25/20
Major-severe storm    65/25/15