:Product: 0722RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2024 Jul 22 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 204 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Jul 2024

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z to
22/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M3 event observed at
22/0404Z from Region 3762 (S13E37). There are currently 10 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(23 Jul, 24 Jul, 25 Jul).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 333 km/s at 22/1853Z. Total IMF reached 10
nT at 22/1735Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at
22/1751Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 107 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (23 Jul), unsettled to
major storm levels on day two (24 Jul) and quiet to active levels on day
three (25 Jul). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on
days one, two, and three (23 Jul, 24 Jul, 25 Jul).

III.  Event probabilities 23 Jul-25 Jul
Class M    60/60/60
Class X    15/15/15
Proton     15/15/15
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           22 Jul 185
Predicted   23 Jul-25 Jul 185/185/185
90 Day Mean        22 Jul 186

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Jul  009/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Jul  007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Jul-25 Jul  009/010-020/030-011/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Jul-25 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/30/30
Minor Storm           10/35/10
Major-severe storm    01/20/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/05/15
Minor Storm           25/20/30
Major-severe storm    35/75/40