:Product: 0723RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2024 Jul 23 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 205 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Jul 2024

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22/2100Z to
23/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event observed at
23/1428Z. There are currently 10 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(24 Jul, 25 Jul, 26 Jul).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 334 km/s at 23/2003Z. Total IMF reached 16
nT at 23/2039Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
22/2154Z.  Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 24 pfu at 23/1040Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 136 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to major storm levels on day one (24 Jul), quiet to
active levels on day two (25 Jul) and quiet levels on day three (26
Jul). Protons are expected to cross threshold on day one (24 Jul) and
have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days two and three (25
Jul, 26 Jul).

III.  Event probabilities 24 Jul-26 Jul
Class M    60/60/60
Class X    15/15/15
Proton     99/15/15
PCAF       yellow

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           23 Jul 176
Predicted   24 Jul-26 Jul 180/182/180
90 Day Mean        23 Jul 186

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Jul  009/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Jul  006/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Jul-26 Jul  019/024-011/012-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Jul-26 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/30/10
Minor Storm           35/10/01
Major-severe storm    20/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/15/15
Minor Storm           20/30/20
Major-severe storm    70/40/15