:Product: 0724RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2024 Jul 24 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 206 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Jul 2024

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z to
24/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M3 event observed at
24/0742Z from Region 3751 (S08W70). There are currently 10 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(25 Jul, 26 Jul, 27 Jul).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 378 km/s at 24/1406Z. Total IMF reached 19 nT at
24/0002Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at
24/1146Z.  Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 16 pfu at 23/2135Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 120 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (25 Jul, 26 Jul) and
quiet to minor storm levels on day three (27 Jul). Protons have a slight
chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (25 Jul, 26
Jul, 27 Jul).

III.  Event probabilities 25 Jul-27 Jul
Class M    60/60/60
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     10/10/10
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           24 Jul 175
Predicted   25 Jul-27 Jul 175/175/175
90 Day Mean        24 Jul 186

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Jul  008/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Jul  013/016
Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Jul-27 Jul  009/010-010/010-014/018

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Jul-27 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/30/40
Minor Storm           10/10/25
Major-severe storm    01/01/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/10
Minor Storm           30/30/20
Major-severe storm    40/40/65