:Product: 0725RSGA.txt :Issued: 2024 Jul 25 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 207 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Jul 2024 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at 25/1537Z from Region 3751 (S08W84). There are currently 11 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (26 Jul, 27 Jul, 28 Jul). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 468 km/s at 25/1445Z. Total IMF reached 16 nT at 25/2100Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -13 nT at 25/2100Z. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (26 Jul), quiet to minor storm levels on day two (27 Jul) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (28 Jul). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (26 Jul, 27 Jul, 28 Jul). III. Event probabilities 26 Jul-28 Jul Class M 60/60/60 Class X 10/10/10 Proton 10/10/10 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 25 Jul 167 Predicted 26 Jul-28 Jul 170/170/165 90 Day Mean 25 Jul 186 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 24 Jul 008/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Jul 006/006 Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Jul-28 Jul 011/012-014/018-007/008 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Jul-28 Jul A. Middle Latitudes Active 30/40/20 Minor Storm 10/25/05 Major-severe storm 01/05/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/10/15 Minor Storm 30/20/30 Major-severe storm 40/65/25