:Product: 0727RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2024 Jul 27 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 209 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Jul 2024

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26/2100Z to
27/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M4 event observed at
27/0237Z from Region 3766 (S07E19). There are currently 10 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(28 Jul, 29 Jul, 30 Jul).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 526 km/s at 26/2104Z. Total IMF reached 8
nT at 27/1330Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at
27/0829Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 179 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (28 Jul), quiet to minor
storm levels on day two (29 Jul) and quiet to major storm levels on day
three (30 Jul). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on
days one, two, and three (28 Jul, 29 Jul, 30 Jul).

III.  Event probabilities 28 Jul-30 Jul
Class M    60/60/60
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     10/10/10
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           27 Jul 204
Predicted   28 Jul-30 Jul 180/180/190
90 Day Mean        27 Jul 187

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Jul  023/027
Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Jul  014/016
Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Jul-30 Jul  007/008-013/018-020/030

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Jul-30 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/35/35
Minor Storm           05/30/35
Major-severe storm    01/05/25
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/10/10
Minor Storm           30/25/20
Major-severe storm    25/50/70