:Product: 0728RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2024 Jul 28 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 210 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Jul 2024

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27/2100Z to
28/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M9 event observed at
28/0157Z from Region 3766 (S07E04). There are currently 10 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one and three (29 Jul,
31 Jul) and likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class
flare on day two (30 Jul).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 437 km/s at 27/2219Z. Total IMF reached 6
nT at 28/2057Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
28/1954Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 335 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (29 Jul), minor storm to
severe storm levels on day two (30 Jul) and unsettled to major storm
levels on day three (31 Jul). Protons have a slight chance of crossing
threshold on days one, two, and three (29 Jul, 30 Jul, 31 Jul).

III.  Event probabilities 29 Jul-31 Jul
Class M    75/70/75
Class X    20/20/20
Proton     15/15/15
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           28 Jul 214
Predicted   29 Jul-31 Jul 210/210/200
90 Day Mean        28 Jul 188

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Jul  014/016
Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Jul  006/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Jul-31 Jul  013/018-042/072-024/035

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Jul-31 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/25/35
Minor Storm           15/35/35
Major-severe storm    01/35/20
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/05/05
Minor Storm           25/15/20
Major-severe storm    50/79/75