:Product: 0729RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2024 Jul 29 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 211 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Jul 2024

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z to
29/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a X1 event observed at
29/0237Z from Region 3766 (S07W11). There are currently 10 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (30 Jul, 31
Jul, 01 Aug).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 412 km/s at 28/2237Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at
29/1522Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
29/0747Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 937 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at minor storm to severe storm levels on day one (30 Jul) and
unsettled to major storm levels on days two and three (31 Jul, 01 Aug).
Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and
three (30 Jul, 31 Jul, 01 Aug).

III.  Event probabilities 30 Jul-01 Aug
Class M    80/80/80
Class X    25/25/25
Proton     20/20/20
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           29 Jul 223
Predicted   30 Jul-01 Aug 215/210/210
90 Day Mean        29 Jul 189

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Jul  008/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Jul  010/014
Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Jul-01 Aug  042/072-024/035-021/032

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Jul-01 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/35/35
Minor Storm           35/40/40
Major-severe storm    35/20/20
B.  High Latitudes
Active                05/05/05
Minor Storm           15/20/20
Major-severe storm    79/80/80