:Product: 0730RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2024 Jul 30 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 212 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Jul 2024

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z to
30/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M9 event observed at
30/1938Z from Region 3772 (S25E59). There are currently 12 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (31 Jul, 01
Aug, 02 Aug).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 519 km/s at 30/0453Z. Total IMF
reached 18 nT at 30/0205Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-12 nT at 30/0208Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous
orbit reached a peak level of 413 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to major storm levels on days one and two (31 Jul, 01
Aug) and quiet to active levels on day three (02 Aug). Protons have a
slight chance of crossing threshold on days one and two (31 Jul, 01 Aug)
and have a chance of crossing threshold on day three (02 Aug).

III.  Event probabilities 31 Jul-02 Aug
Class M    75/75/75
Class X    25/25/25
Proton     20/20/25
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           30 Jul 220
Predicted   31 Jul-02 Aug 210/210/205
90 Day Mean        30 Jul 190

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Jul  007/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Jul  025/038
Predicted Afr/Ap 31 Jul-02 Aug  021/030-020/030-010/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 Jul-02 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/35/30
Minor Storm           35/35/10
Major-severe storm    20/20/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                05/05/15
Minor Storm           20/20/25
Major-severe storm    75/75/40