:Product: 0731RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2024 Jul 31 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 213 Issued at 2200Z on 31 Jul 2024

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30/2100Z to
31/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M7 event observed at
31/0646Z from Region 3768 (S16W71). There are currently 13 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (01 Aug, 02
Aug, 03 Aug).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 31/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 505 km/s at 31/1702Z. Total IMF
reached 16 nT at 31/1412Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-13 nT at 31/1802Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous
orbit reached a peak level of 117 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to major storm levels on day one (01 Aug), quiet to
active levels on day two (02 Aug) and quiet levels on day three (03
Aug). Protons have a chance of crossing threshold on day one (01 Aug)
and have a chance of crossing threshold on days two and three (02 Aug,
03 Aug).

III.  Event probabilities 01 Aug-03 Aug
Class M    75/75/75
Class X    25/25/25
Proton     35/25/25
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           31 Jul 235
Predicted   01 Aug-03 Aug 230/220/220
90 Day Mean        31 Jul 191

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Jul  018/021
Estimated Afr/Ap 31 Jul  014/018
Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Aug-03 Aug  020/030-010/010-005/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Aug-03 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/30/10
Minor Storm           35/10/01
Major-severe storm    20/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                05/15/15
Minor Storm           20/25/20
Major-severe storm    75/40/15