:Product: 0801RSGA.txt :Issued: 2024 Aug 01 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 214 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Aug 2024 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M8 event observed at 01/0709Z from Region 3768 (S16W85). There are currently 13 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be moderate with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (02 Aug, 03 Aug, 04 Aug). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 499 km/s at 01/0026Z. Total IMF reached 12 nT at 01/0336Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 01/0038Z. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (02 Aug) and quiet to major storm levels on days two and three (03 Aug, 04 Aug). Protons have a chance of crossing threshold on day one (02 Aug) and have a chance of crossing threshold on days two and three (03 Aug, 04 Aug). III. Event probabilities 02 Aug-04 Aug Class M 75/75/75 Class X 25/25/25 Proton 35/25/25 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 01 Aug 234 Predicted 02 Aug-04 Aug 235/230/220 90 Day Mean 01 Aug 192 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 31 Jul 013/019 Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Aug 024/031 Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Aug-04 Aug 010/010-018/030-018/025 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Aug-04 Aug A. Middle Latitudes Active 30/30/35 Minor Storm 10/35/30 Major-severe storm 01/20/15 B. High Latitudes Active 15/05/05 Minor Storm 25/20/20 Major-severe storm 40/70/70