:Product: 0802RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2024 Aug 02 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 215 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Aug 2024

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z to
02/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event observed at
02/0759Z from Region 3765 (S11W61). There are currently 13 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (03 Aug, 04
Aug, 05 Aug).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 468 km/s at 01/2310Z. Total IMF reached 10
nT at 01/2209Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
02/1238Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 107 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to major storm levels on days one and two (03 Aug, 04
Aug) and quiet levels on day three (05 Aug). Protons have a chance of
crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (03 Aug, 04 Aug, 05 Aug).

III.  Event probabilities 03 Aug-05 Aug
Class M    75/75/75
Class X    25/25/25
Proton     25/25/25
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           02 Aug 247
Predicted   03 Aug-05 Aug 245/245/240
90 Day Mean        02 Aug 193

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Aug  022/022
Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Aug  008/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Aug-05 Aug  018/030-018/025-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Aug-05 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/35/20
Minor Storm           35/30/05
Major-severe storm    20/15/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                05/05/15
Minor Storm           20/20/25
Major-severe storm    70/70/30