:Product: 0803RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2024 Aug 03 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 216 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Aug 2024

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z to
03/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M7 event observed at
03/1839Z from Region 3775 (N17E18). There are currently 12 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (04 Aug, 05
Aug, 06 Aug).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 419 km/s at 02/2122Z. Total IMF reached 9
nT at 03/2004Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at
03/2033Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 108 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to major storm levels on day one (04 Aug), quiet to
unsettled levels on day two (05 Aug) and quiet levels on day three (06
Aug). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one,
two, and three (04 Aug, 05 Aug, 06 Aug).

III.  Event probabilities 04 Aug-06 Aug
Class M    75/75/75
Class X    25/25/25
Proton     20/20/20
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           03 Aug 245
Predicted   04 Aug-06 Aug 245/240/230
90 Day Mean        03 Aug 194

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Aug  009/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Aug  018/029
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Aug-06 Aug  018/025-007/008-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Aug-06 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/20/10
Minor Storm           30/05/01
Major-severe storm    15/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                05/15/15
Minor Storm           20/25/20
Major-severe storm    70/30/15