:Product: 0804RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2024 Aug 04 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 217 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Aug 2024

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z to
04/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event observed at
04/1515Z from Region 3780 (S10E71). There are currently 10 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (05 Aug, 06
Aug, 07 Aug).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to severe storm levels for the past 24
hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 498 km/s at 03/2135Z. Total
IMF reached 19 nT at 04/1251Z. The maximum southward component of Bz
reached -17 nT at 04/1249Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 109 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (05 Aug) and quiet to
unsettled levels on days two and three (06 Aug, 07 Aug). Protons have a
slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (05 Aug,
06 Aug, 07 Aug).

III.  Event probabilities 05 Aug-07 Aug
Class M    75/75/75
Class X    25/25/25
Proton     20/20/20
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           04 Aug 241
Predicted   05 Aug-07 Aug 240/240/240
90 Day Mean        04 Aug 194

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Aug  009/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Aug  029/047
Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Aug-07 Aug  013/015-008/010-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Aug-07 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/20/10
Minor Storm           20/05/01
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/15/15
Minor Storm           25/30/20
Major-severe storm    50/25/15