:Product: 0805RSGA.txt :Issued: 2024 Aug 05 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 218 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Aug 2024 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a X1 event observed at 05/1340Z from Region 3767 (S09W92). There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be moderate with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (06 Aug, 07 Aug, 08 Aug). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 667 km/s at 05/0949Z. Total IMF reached 21 nT at 05/0002Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -10 nT at 05/0215Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 3 pfu at 05/1945Z. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (06 Aug, 07 Aug) and quiet levels on day three (08 Aug). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (06 Aug, 07 Aug, 08 Aug). III. Event probabilities 06 Aug-08 Aug Class M 75/75/75 Class X 25/25/25 Proton 20/20/20 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 05 Aug 247 Predicted 06 Aug-08 Aug 244/235/240 90 Day Mean 05 Aug 195 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 04 Aug 028/050 Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Aug 009/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Aug-08 Aug 007/010-007/008-005/005 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Aug-08 Aug A. Middle Latitudes Active 20/10/10 Minor Storm 05/01/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 30/20/20 Major-severe storm 25/15/15