:Product: 0806RSGA.txt :Issued: 2024 Aug 06 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 219 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Aug 2024 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at 06/0303Z from Region 3781 (N13E53). There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be moderate with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (07 Aug, 08 Aug, 09 Aug). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 528 km/s at 06/0954Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 06/1953Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 06/0607Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 3 pfu at 05/2140Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 156 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (07 Aug, 09 Aug) and quiet levels on day two (08 Aug). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (07 Aug, 08 Aug, 09 Aug). III. Event probabilities 07 Aug-09 Aug Class M 75/75/75 Class X 25/25/25 Proton 20/20/20 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 06 Aug 270 Predicted 07 Aug-09 Aug 235/240/230 90 Day Mean 06 Aug 195 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 05 Aug 010/010 Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Aug 007/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Aug-09 Aug 007/008-006/006-010/012 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Aug-09 Aug A. Middle Latitudes Active 10/10/10 Minor Storm 01/01/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 20/20/20 Major-severe storm 15/15/15