:Product: 0808RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2024 Aug 08 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 221 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Aug 2024

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z to
08/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event observed at
08/0106Z from Region 3777 (S09W19). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (09 Aug, 10
Aug, 11 Aug).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 457 km/s at 07/2337Z. Total IMF reached 7
nT at 07/2221Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
07/2121Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 131 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to major storm levels on days one and three (09 Aug, 11
Aug) and unsettled to major storm levels on day two (10 Aug). Protons
have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three
(09 Aug, 10 Aug, 11 Aug).

III.  Event probabilities 09 Aug-11 Aug
Class M    75/75/75
Class X    25/25/25
Proton     20/20/20
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           08 Aug 336
Predicted   09 Aug-11 Aug 300/300/260
90 Day Mean        08 Aug 197

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Aug  008/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Aug  008/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Aug-11 Aug  019/034-033/052-023/036

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Aug-11 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/25/25
Minor Storm           35/35/35
Major-severe storm    20/20/20
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor Storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    65/65/65