:Product: 0809RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2024 Aug 09 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 222 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Aug 2024

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z to
09/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
09/1206Z from Region 3780 (S12E03). There are currently 9 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (10 Aug, 11
Aug, 12 Aug).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 436 km/s at 09/1752Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at
09/0342Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
09/0105Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 224 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to major storm levels on day one (10 Aug), quiet to
major storm levels on day two (11 Aug) and active to major storm levels
on day three (12 Aug). Protons have a slight chance of crossing
threshold on days one, two, and three (10 Aug, 11 Aug, 12 Aug).

III.  Event probabilities 10 Aug-12 Aug
Class M    75/75/75
Class X    25/25/25
Proton     20/20/20
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           09 Aug 306
Predicted   10 Aug-12 Aug 300/290/280
90 Day Mean        09 Aug 198

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Aug  011/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Aug  012/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Aug-12 Aug  029/042-023/030-028/043

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Aug-12 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/20/30
Minor Storm           35/35/45
Major-severe storm    20/20/25
B.  High Latitudes
Active                05/05/05
Minor Storm           15/20/15
Major-severe storm    65/65/80