:Product: 0810RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2024 Aug 10 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 223 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Aug 2024

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z to
10/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M5 event observed at
10/0237Z from Region 3780 (S10W09). There are currently 9 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (11 Aug, 12
Aug, 13 Aug).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 516 km/s at 10/1046Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at
10/1225Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
10/1659Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 138 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to major storm levels on day one (11 Aug), unsettled to
major storm levels on day two (12 Aug) and quiet to active levels on day
three (13 Aug). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on
days one, two, and three (11 Aug, 12 Aug, 13 Aug).

III.  Event probabilities 11 Aug-13 Aug
Class M    80/80/80
Class X    30/30/30
Proton     20/20/20
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           10 Aug 291
Predicted   11 Aug-13 Aug 290/280/270
90 Day Mean        10 Aug 199

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Aug  009/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Aug  007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Aug-13 Aug  018/025-025/038-013/015

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Aug-13 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/30/30
Minor Storm           35/35/20
Major-severe storm    20/20/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor Storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    70/70/55