:Product: 0811RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2024 Aug 11 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 224 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Aug 2024

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z to
11/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar events of the period were two M1 events
observed at 11/0528Z from Region 3780 (S11W20) and at 11/2018Z from
Region 3777 (S10W60). There are currently 11 numbered sunspot regions on
the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (12 Aug, 13
Aug, 14 Aug).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 539 km/s at 11/2032Z. Total IMF
reached 21 nT at 11/0917Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-15 nT at 11/0515Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous
orbit reached a peak level of 147 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to major storm levels on day one (12 Aug), quiet to
active levels on day two (13 Aug) and quiet levels on day three (14
Aug). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one,
two, and three (12 Aug, 13 Aug, 14 Aug).

III.  Event probabilities 12 Aug-14 Aug
Class M    75/75/75
Class X    30/30/30
Proton     15/15/15
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           11 Aug 282
Predicted   12 Aug-14 Aug 280/270/270
90 Day Mean        11 Aug 200

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Aug  008/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Aug  018/028
Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Aug-14 Aug  025/038-013/015-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Aug-14 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/30/20
Minor Storm           35/20/05
Major-severe storm    20/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/10/15
Minor Storm           20/20/25
Major-severe storm    70/55/25