:Product: 0813RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2024 Aug 13 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 226 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Aug 2024

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z to
13/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
12/2257Z from Region 3784 (N15E21). There are currently 10 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (14 Aug, 15
Aug, 16 Aug).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to major storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 478 km/s at 12/2151Z. Total IMF
reached 21 nT at 13/0358Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-8 nT at 12/2100Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 119 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (14 Aug, 15 Aug, 16
Aug). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on day one (14
Aug) and have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days two and
three (15 Aug, 16 Aug).

III.  Event probabilities 14 Aug-16 Aug
Class M    75/75/75
Class X    25/25/25
Proton     15/10/10
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           13 Aug 260
Predicted   14 Aug-16 Aug 270/270/270
90 Day Mean        13 Aug 201

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Aug  051/123
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Aug  016/021
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Aug-16 Aug  007/008-006/005-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Aug-16 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/10/15
Minor Storm           05/01/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    20/15/20