:Product: 0814RSGA.txt :Issued: 2024 Aug 14 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 227 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Aug 2024 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a X1 event observed at 14/0640Z from Region 3784 (N14W05). There are currently 10 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be moderate with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (15 Aug, 16 Aug, 17 Aug). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 473 km/s at 14/0051Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 14/2100Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 13/2214Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 147 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (15 Aug) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (16 Aug, 17 Aug). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one and two (15 Aug, 16 Aug) and have a slight chance of crossing threshold on day three (17 Aug). III. Event probabilities 15 Aug-17 Aug Class M 75/75/75 Class X 25/25/25 Proton 15/15/10 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 14 Aug 248 Predicted 15 Aug-17 Aug 255/260/250 90 Day Mean 14 Aug 201 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 13 Aug 012/014 Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Aug 010/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Aug-17 Aug 006/005-009/008-010/010 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Aug-17 Aug A. Middle Latitudes Active 10/20/20 Minor Storm 01/05/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 20/25/30 Major-severe storm 15/25/25