:Product: 0815RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2024 Aug 15 2320 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 228 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Aug 2024

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z to
15/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
15/0348Z from Region 3780 (S09W74). There are currently 9 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (16 Aug, 17
Aug, 18 Aug).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 411 km/s at 15/0031Z. Total IMF reached 9
nT at 14/2213Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
15/1249Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 289 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (16 Aug), quiet to active
levels on day two (17 Aug) and active to minor storm levels on day three
(18 Aug). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days
one, two, and three (16 Aug, 17 Aug, 18 Aug).

III.  Event probabilities 16 Aug-18 Aug
Class M    75/75/75
Class X    25/25/25
Proton     15/15/15
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           15 Aug 227
Predicted   16 Aug-18 Aug 230/225/220
90 Day Mean        15 Aug 202

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Aug  011/014
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Aug  005/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Aug-18 Aug  009/010-015/018-020/030

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Aug-18 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/35/25
Minor Storm           05/15/30
Major-severe storm    01/05/10
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/10/05
Minor Storm           25/30/15
Major-severe storm    25/50/55