:Product: 0816RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2024 Aug 16 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 229 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Aug 2024

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z to
16/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
16/1324Z from Region 3780 (S08W87). There are currently 11 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(17 Aug, 18 Aug, 19 Aug).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 481 km/s at 16/0802Z. Total IMF reached 7
nT at 15/2111Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
16/0005Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 289 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (17 Aug), unsettled to minor
storm levels on day two (18 Aug) and unsettled to active levels on day
three (19 Aug). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on
days one, two, and three (17 Aug, 18 Aug, 19 Aug).

III.  Event probabilities 17 Aug-19 Aug
Class M    70/70/70
Class X    20/20/20
Proton     10/10/10
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           16 Aug 225
Predicted   17 Aug-19 Aug 225/220/215
90 Day Mean        16 Aug 202

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Aug  006/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Aug  007/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Aug-19 Aug  015/018-023/030-016/022

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Aug-19 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/25/30
Minor Storm           15/30/20
Major-severe storm    05/10/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/05/10
Minor Storm           30/15/20
Major-severe storm    50/55/50