:Product: 0817RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2024 Aug 17 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 230 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Aug 2024

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z to
17/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
17/1033Z from Region 3784 (N15W47). There are currently 10 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(18 Aug, 19 Aug, 20 Aug).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to severe storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 499 km/s at 17/1631Z. Total IMF
reached 24 nT at 17/1628Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-21 nT at 17/1622Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous
orbit reached a peak level of 272 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (18 Aug), quiet to
unsettled levels on day two (19 Aug) and quiet levels on day three (20
Aug). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one,
two, and three (18 Aug, 19 Aug, 20 Aug).

III.  Event probabilities 18 Aug-20 Aug
Class M    70/70/70
Class X    20/20/20
Proton     10/10/10
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           17 Aug 230
Predicted   18 Aug-20 Aug 220/215/215
90 Day Mean        17 Aug 202

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Aug  011/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Aug  012/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Aug-20 Aug  020/025-011/010-006/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Aug-20 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/30/20
Minor Storm           30/20/05
Major-severe storm    10/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                05/10/15
Minor Storm           15/20/25
Major-severe storm    55/50/25